UPDATE: Apparently I was wrong in the numbers here, I was extrapolating from Rose’s table in the OP but I interpreted “to” as “in” and also the doubling time extrapolation was Rose’s interpolation rather than what the forecasters said. The 95% most aggressive forecaster prediction for most expensive training run in 2030 was actually $250M, not $140M. My apologies! Thanks to Josh Rosenberg for pointing this out to me.
(To be clear, I think my frustration with the XPT forecasters was still basically correct, if a bit overblown; $250M is still too low and the 50th percentile forecaster thought 2030′s most expensive run would only be $100M, which is not that far off from the most expensive run that had already happened at the time of the forecast being made.)
UPDATE: Apparently I was wrong in the numbers here, I was extrapolating from Rose’s table in the OP but I interpreted “to” as “in” and also the doubling time extrapolation was Rose’s interpolation rather than what the forecasters said. The 95% most aggressive forecaster prediction for most expensive training run in 2030 was actually $250M, not $140M. My apologies! Thanks to Josh Rosenberg for pointing this out to me.
(To be clear, I think my frustration with the XPT forecasters was still basically correct, if a bit overblown; $250M is still too low and the 50th percentile forecaster thought 2030′s most expensive run would only be $100M, which is not that far off from the most expensive run that had already happened at the time of the forecast being made.)