So the claim is:
The 50% trend will break down at some length of task T
The 80% trend will therefore break at T/4
And maybe T is large enough to cause some catastrophic risk, but T/4 isn’t
?
Yes. (Though I’m not saying this will happen, just that it could, and that is more significant than a short delay.)
Fair enough! My guess is that when the trend breaks it will be because things have gone super-exponential rather than sub-exponential (some discussion here) but yeah, I agree that this could happen!
So the claim is:
The 50% trend will break down at some length of task T
The 80% trend will therefore break at T/4
And maybe T is large enough to cause some catastrophic risk, but T/4 isn’t
?
Yes. (Though I’m not saying this will happen, just that it could, and that is more significant than a short delay.)
Fair enough! My guess is that when the trend breaks it will be because things have gone super-exponential rather than sub-exponential (some discussion here) but yeah, I agree that this could happen!