Is the point when models hit a length of time on the x-axis of the graph meant to represent the point where models can do all tasks of that length that a normal knowledge worker could perform on a computer? The vast majority of knowledge worker tasks of that length? At least one task of that length? Some particular important subset of tasks of that length?
I don’t quite get what that means. Do they really take exactly the same amount of time on all tasks for which they have the same success rate? Sorry, maybe I am being annoying here and this is all well-explained in the linked post. But I am trying to figure out how much this is creating the illusion that progress on it means a model will be able to handle all tasks that it takes normal human workers about that amount of time to do, when it really means something quite different.
Thanks for the question David! I expect that I can’t summarize this more simply than the paper does; particularly: section 4 goes into more detail on what the horizon means and section 8.1 discusses some limitations of this approach.
Section 4 is completely over my head I have to confess.
Edit: But the abstract gives me what I wanted to know :) : “To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate”
Is the point when models hit a length of time on the x-axis of the graph meant to represent the point where models can do all tasks of that length that a normal knowledge worker could perform on a computer? The vast majority of knowledge worker tasks of that length? At least one task of that length? Some particular important subset of tasks of that length?
As it says in the subtitle of the graph, it’s the length of task at which models have a 50% success rate.
I don’t quite get what that means. Do they really take exactly the same amount of time on all tasks for which they have the same success rate? Sorry, maybe I am being annoying here and this is all well-explained in the linked post. But I am trying to figure out how much this is creating the illusion that progress on it means a model will be able to handle all tasks that it takes normal human workers about that amount of time to do, when it really means something quite different.
Thanks for the question David! I expect that I can’t summarize this more simply than the paper does; particularly: section 4 goes into more detail on what the horizon means and section 8.1 discusses some limitations of this approach.
Section 4 is completely over my head I have to confess.
Edit: But the abstract gives me what I wanted to know :) : “To quantify the capabilities of AI systems in terms of human capabilities, we propose a new metric: 50%-task-completion time horizon. This is the time humans typically take to complete tasks that AI models can complete with 50% success rate”