Yeah sorry for not including that. I simply went by memory and had read articles such as this one, but not spent time digging into the details. I just consulted microCOVID (still not sure if this is super reliable though!) and indeed it seems going to a bar/nightclub is more than twice as risky (I got 2800 microCOVIDs for 6-hour flight where people talked at normal volume while a 2 hour visit to a bar resulted in 8900 microCOVIDs). Thanks for encouraging me to look it up although I am not sure it significantly changed my suggestion. But I would definitely recommend an expert to make a final recommendation on whether what I proposed is indeed an intervention with among the lowest cost/benefit ratios. I guess asking participants to not visit a bar before going to the event might be even more effective.
Why are you modeling people on the flight as, on average, talking? On flights I’ve been on most people are watching videos, reading, sleeping, eating, etc and only a few people traveling together talk.
Hi Jeff, thanks for taking the time to give a more expert view on this and helping me update my view on this topic.
To your question: I guess my subjective perspective of silent is perhaps different than the criteria used in the microCOVID calculations. I guess I might also have suffered some confirmation bias in choosing parameters “favorably”.
I do want to emphasize the use of words/phrases such as “perhaps”, “if I understand correctly” and “naïve understanding” in my original comment. I did not feel very confident in my original suggestion (perhaps I should not have posted? I am still new to the EAF and gladly accept advice on how to use it). I now think that perhaps (I am still not 100% convinced as the data on confirmed cases on flights seems scarce) flights, especially if they are on average in fact “silent”, are substantially less risky than visiting a crowded, loud and poorly ventilated bar. Before you had the patience to walk me through the evidence, I had perhaps erroneously believed that taking a flight was on par with such an activity.
(one more reason for my suggestion is that I very often get sick when travelling by air no matter how much hand sanitizer I use. However, I very seldom get sick when going to bars and the like, perhaps except for the occasional hangover—haha!)
Link?
Yeah sorry for not including that. I simply went by memory and had read articles such as this one, but not spent time digging into the details. I just consulted microCOVID (still not sure if this is super reliable though!) and indeed it seems going to a bar/nightclub is more than twice as risky (I got 2800 microCOVIDs for 6-hour flight where people talked at normal volume while a 2 hour visit to a bar resulted in 8900 microCOVIDs). Thanks for encouraging me to look it up although I am not sure it significantly changed my suggestion. But I would definitely recommend an expert to make a final recommendation on whether what I proposed is indeed an intervention with among the lowest cost/benefit ratios. I guess asking participants to not visit a bar before going to the event might be even more effective.
Why are you modeling people on the flight as, on average, talking? On flights I’ve been on most people are watching videos, reading, sleeping, eating, etc and only a few people traveling together talk.
Microcovid gives more details on how they’re modeling airplanes: https://www.microcovid.org/paper/all#airplanes
Hi Jeff, thanks for taking the time to give a more expert view on this and helping me update my view on this topic.
To your question: I guess my subjective perspective of silent is perhaps different than the criteria used in the microCOVID calculations. I guess I might also have suffered some confirmation bias in choosing parameters “favorably”.
I do want to emphasize the use of words/phrases such as “perhaps”, “if I understand correctly” and “naïve understanding” in my original comment. I did not feel very confident in my original suggestion (perhaps I should not have posted? I am still new to the EAF and gladly accept advice on how to use it). I now think that perhaps (I am still not 100% convinced as the data on confirmed cases on flights seems scarce) flights, especially if they are on average in fact “silent”, are substantially less risky than visiting a crowded, loud and poorly ventilated bar. Before you had the patience to walk me through the evidence, I had perhaps erroneously believed that taking a flight was on par with such an activity.
(one more reason for my suggestion is that I very often get sick when travelling by air no matter how much hand sanitizer I use. However, I very seldom get sick when going to bars and the like, perhaps except for the occasional hangover—haha!)