Yeah, but I can see Guy’s point that there’s some threshold where an event is short enough that a social intervention is cheaper than a technical one, so that different solutions are best for different contexts. But I don’t really have an opinion on that.
Hmm, true. Testing for fever maybe?
Thanks!
My model (based on Microcovid) would’ve predicted about 9 cases (3–26) for a 1,000-person event around nowish in Berlin. I don’t have easy access to the data of London back then, but the case count must’ve been higher. With these numbers we “only” lose about a year of EA time in expectation and have less than one case of long-covid.
Thanks for spending the time thinking about this! My focus had not been masks because, insofar as they would make EAG safer in a cost-beneficial way, I don’t think increasing mask adoption at EAG would have strong follow-on effects on other actors/the personal protective equipment (PPE) field in general. On the other hand, interventions to clean the air directly (ventilation, filtration, and UV light) seem to require better piloting on the critical path to wide adoption. Since a world with clean indoor air has both near-term health and long-term existential safety benefits my hypothesis is that piloting them in EA spaces is uniquely attractive compared to masks.
I know a lot of EAG biosecurity groups are excited about next-gen PPE and insofar as prototypes become available where EAG could serve as a useful testing ground, I’d become much more excited about implementing PPE there.
That said, I acknowledge your arguments that the direct benefits to EA health may justify masking. I personally do tend towards the “I dislike wearing masks; I think they impose real burdens that likely outweigh the health benefits for EAs” side of things, but I don’t feel like my view on that is particularly well-justified.
Yeah, but I can see Guy’s point that there’s some threshold where an event is short enough that a social intervention is cheaper than a technical one, so that different solutions are best for different contexts. But I don’t really have an opinion on that.
Hmm, true. Testing for fever maybe?
Thanks!
My model (based on Microcovid) would’ve predicted about 9 cases (3–26) for a 1,000-person event around nowish in Berlin. I don’t have easy access to the data of London back then, but the case count must’ve been higher. With these numbers we “only” lose about a year of EA time in expectation and have less than one case of long-covid.
Thanks for spending the time thinking about this! My focus had not been masks because, insofar as they would make EAG safer in a cost-beneficial way, I don’t think increasing mask adoption at EAG would have strong follow-on effects on other actors/the personal protective equipment (PPE) field in general. On the other hand, interventions to clean the air directly (ventilation, filtration, and UV light) seem to require better piloting on the critical path to wide adoption. Since a world with clean indoor air has both near-term health and long-term existential safety benefits my hypothesis is that piloting them in EA spaces is uniquely attractive compared to masks.
I know a lot of EAG biosecurity groups are excited about next-gen PPE and insofar as prototypes become available where EAG could serve as a useful testing ground, I’d become much more excited about implementing PPE there.
That said, I acknowledge your arguments that the direct benefits to EA health may justify masking. I personally do tend towards the “I dislike wearing masks; I think they impose real burdens that likely outweigh the health benefits for EAs” side of things, but I don’t feel like my view on that is particularly well-justified.
I see! Yeah, I don’t have an overview of the bottlenecks in the biosecurity ecosystem, so that’s good to consider.