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Loneliness may indeed be rising, but we don’t yet have good evidence that that’s the case:
“It’s easy to find claims that loneliness is rising (for example, here’s a recent Wall Street Journal article on that theme). But last summer the Social Capital Project run by the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress published “All the Lonely Americans?” (August 22, 2018) and found little evidence of such an increase. The report cites a broad array of claims and evidence, which you can check out for yourself. But here’s a quick overview of some main points (with citations omitted for readability):
It looks like this report is from 2018, and doesn’t incorporate the 2019 YouGov research I linked. (I doubt pre-2004 data will give us insight into modern loneliness. Facebook and Twitter didn’t exist back then, for instance.) This bit is interesting though:
It’s not clear to me how to reconcile this with e.g. the research YouGov cites to attribute loneliness among current youth to social media use. I guess a natural first step would be to see whether the magnitude of historical effects in the Handbook of Individual Differences in Social Behavior can explain what YouGov saw. I think you’d have to analyze data carefully to figure out if it supports the hypothesis “young people just tend to be lonelier” or the hypothesis “social ties get weaker with every passing generation + elderly people get lonely as their friends die”.
In any case, I think loneliness could be a problem worth tackling even if it isn’t rising. (And you will notice I didn’t technically claim it was rising :P) The point is also somewhat moot as only one person expressed interest as a result of me posting here.
Fair enough I haven’t looked at the YouGov report.
I responding to the thrust of Tyler’s quote at the top.
That data is especially precious because you need a ‘before’ measurement to see whether social media coincides with any change or loneliness staying the same as before!
But I agree many problems aren’t increasing but are still well worth addressing!
Probably you’d make a big contribution to AI safety by becoming a billionaire who cares about AI safety?
I have a lot more ideas than I know what to do with. So I try to prioritize ruthlessly. I feel like I’ve got a comparative advantage working on AI stuff and a comparative disadvantage starting a company like this one. I’m experimenting with posting some of my ideas to the EA Forum to see if they can be useful to other people, e.g. folks who wanted to get a job at an EA organization but weren’t successful.
Interesting ideas… the main thing I am struggeling with is the inherent danger of seeing this as for-profit business… You will start to optimize for your metrics and want hockeypuck growth figures to satisfy shareholders in the attempt to become the next WeWork unicorn. Quicker than you can say “Utopia” the whole thing will turn into a creepy shit show tracking your every move trying to upsell you on the next great product.
That’s maybe a little harsh but I think you get my idea… there are some interesting aspects in your proposal but without a really well designed incentive system the whole thing will go up in flames. I warned you...
Facebook and Google have an incentive to track their users because they sell targeted advertising. The user isn’t the customer, they are the product. This is an atypical business model.
One thing about the real estate business is because so much money is changing hands, there’s a big incentive to cut out the middleman. (Winning Through Intimidation is a fascinating book about this.) I would highly recommend you avoid actions which run the slightest risk of pissing your customers off, lest they cut a deal with the property owner directly. Airbnb will ban anyone who exchanges money outside their platform, but that’s less of a threat here because people don’t change homes frequently. With the amount of money you’re making per customer, you should be able to afford an army of customer service people in order to provide a high-touch customer experience.
There are a few reasons I think for-profit is generally preferable to non-profit when possible:
It’s easier to achieve scale as a for-profit.
For-profit businesses are accountable to their customers. They usually only stay in business if customers are satisfied with the service they provide. Non-profits are accountable to their donors. The impressions of donors correlate imperfectly with the extent to which real needs are being served.
First worlders usually aren’t poor and don’t need charity.
You can donate the money you make to effective charities.
Even without ads they would have a very strong reason for tracking: trying to make the product better. Things you do when using Facebook are all fed into a model trying to predict what you like to interact with, so they can prioritize among the enormous number of things they could be showing you.
Thanks for your reply.
I disagree with your statement that
This is per definition false. For-profit businesses are accountable to their shareholders which can but does not have to mean that they want to act accountable towards their customers for strategic reasons. Strategic reasons can also lead to irresponsible behavior towards customers. You make a good example with facebook and google.
In a similar vein, non-profits are not accountable to their donors but to their charter and members. However, non-profits may want to act accountable towards donors for strategic reasons. For example, if a non-profit is not tax-exempt it can act just as regular company.
Moreover, there are organization types between simple for-profit and standard non-profits, e.g., public benefit corporations [1] or cooperatives [2].
Having said that, I have nothing against well-calibrated for-profit companies but I think my point still stands that anyone who may follow your proposal and has a vested interest in making the world a better place for everyone (from a tentatively impartial and welfarist perspective) should really think about the incentive structure they get themselves into. At least investigate a little bit beyond the standard playbook of neoliberal start up 101.
1:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-benefit_corporation 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative
See also: Bungalow, HubHaus, Common.
I wish someone would do shared living for people who want private living units (not just bedrooms) + shared common spaces, e.g. multiple houses on one block and a shared common space on that block. Makes co-living work for families or people who want a bit more privacy.
Nice post. Your friend wrote that
“Lately, I’ve been having an alarming amount of conversations arise about the burdens of loneliness, alienation, rootlessness, and a lack of belonging that many of my peers feel, especially in the Bay Area”,
which made me wonder if there are geographical areas or cities in the western world that have a particularly high level of connection and community? Maybe those cities could be studied and promising cultural characteristics be spread to other cities and communities?
Although I can’t comment on the sense of community felt by the local residents, I observed and to some extent experienced this in Spain. I’d say the key was the combination of high urban density and availability of shared spaces. Another factor could be the low price of eating/drinking outside the home - - I’d say this facilitates socializing since it’s easier to say “Let’s meet at X at 9pm [Spanish people have dinner very late!]” rather than having to prepare your house to host guests. There’s a joke that you only go into a Spanish person’s flat for a wake (which is an exaggeration, but somewhat based on truth).
Someone also mentioned to me that it is culturally more normal in Europe for people to socialize after work, likely due to some of the factors I mentioned. Cal Newport recently implied that this may have been the case in other countries pre-television. It’s also socially acceptable to take children to most events, even late into the evening.
Unfortunately, these aren’t really cultural characteristics, as I’d say it’s fundamentally based in the high urban density.
There are already at least three companies in this space: RoomieMatch, Roomi, and Roomster. I wonder why nobody I know uses them, but dating apps are very popular?
It seems to me that the triangulation, trust, and transfer problems in roommate matching that go beyond what OKCupid has to deal with:
There are more than two people involved, and the difficulty of finding communal compatibility complexifies geometrically with the number of roommates.
By the same token, people moving in and out happens more frequently with larger numbers of room mates, often with short notice, making it hard to keep a stable equilibrium of preferences.
Imagine if it was easy to “date your future housemates,” perhaps by living together for a month. It’s already emotionally painful for people to deal with or inflict rejection in one-on-one dating. Imagine being the “odd man out” in this situation. That sounds like a recipe for really uncomfortable social dynamics.
People who rent because they can’t afford their own place probably can’t afford a high-touch service. People who have more money could buy their own place and interview enough room mates to make sure everyone is a good fit with them personally.
Land lords often influence or even entirely control the process of finding new room mates. There are also laws around evictions that make it very difficult to kick somebody out if its not working for others, whereas there are no legal barriers to breaking up with someone you’re dating if there’s no marriage and no kids.
There’s a much higher effort and commitment barrier required to move than to go on a date.
This is speculative, but OKCupid’s success may stem from capitalizing on a cultural institution that makes romantic love feel of vast importance. By contrast, finding an ideal group of room mates doesn’t have the same cultural importance: we still dream of having our own place by ourselves or with our own biological family. To have comparable success, such a service would need to create a new dream. Even if that’s your dream, is it the dream of your housemates?
Similarly, the service OKCupid provides may be less in matching people with compatible characteristics, and more in identifying an abundance of single people and getting them hyped to go on a date. The purpose of the “matching” is to trick you into building up anticipation, not to ensure a really good fit (after all, if it did that too well, people wouldn’t come back for more!). Instinct, hormones, and love do most of the work of making people stick together in the end.
When people do try and start intentional group houses, they’re often organized around a shared social movement, which already have word-of-mouth and social media channels where people can learn about these opportunities for free.
I think a company would do better to work on solving one or more of these problems.
Crossposted from the LW forum
I had high hopes for this post...and was disappointed. I don’t think getting roommates or changing roommates is a cure for loneliness for the majority of adults. If I wrote a similar post, instead, I’d discuss various forms of **meditation**. Additionally, I’d mention how to find friends in new places (not necessarily roommates as I don’t base my room/housing on the who—but the where).
Even then, since most people are looking for a life partner, the better way to reduce loneliness is to meet potential suitors. So then one more prospective route is how to meet, generally, single people. Colloquially, at least in the US, this means going to bars or “day gaming.”
I believe that the feeling of loneliness probably is one big contributor to mental health issues and I like your idea of tackling it pragmatically/for-profit.
My gut feeling is that this won‘t be used and people are happy enough with the Craigslist solution. Anectdotally, my roommates (intelligent people) thought it was a joke when I proposed that I would design a questionnaire for people applying to live with us. Another platform, OkCupid, tries to offer meaningful matching scores for romantic partners and it seems to be rather fringe, at least in Germany.
OKCupid was huge before Tinder came along in the US. And as I mentioned, RoomieMatch is already pretty big. That said, it’s possible there wouldn’t be as much of a market for this in Germany. One approach is to start in a city with lots of early adopters who like trying weird new stuff (San Francisco is traditional) and gradually expand as the product concept is normalized. But sometimes things don’t go much beyond early adopters.
Well, how about starting “Tinder for sparerooms”?
It could work. However, Tinder works well because people can quickly guess whether they want to date someone based on physical attraction. I don’t think there is a single easy-to-evaluate factor which predicts roommate compatibility. Also, moving in with someone is a bigger commitment than going on a date with them.