I had a similar question myself. It seems like believing in a “long reflection” period requires denying that there will be a human-aligned AGI. My understanding would have been that once a human-aligned AGI is developed, there would not be much need for human reflection—and whatever human reflection did take place could be accelerated through interactions with the superintelligence, and would therefore not be “long.” I would have thought, then, that most of the reflection on our values would need to have been completed before the creation of an AGI. From what I’ve read of The Precipice, there is no explanation for how a long reflection is compatible with the creation of a human-aligned AGI.
I had a similar question myself. It seems like believing in a “long reflection” period requires denying that there will be a human-aligned AGI. My understanding would have been that once a human-aligned AGI is developed, there would not be much need for human reflection—and whatever human reflection did take place could be accelerated through interactions with the superintelligence, and would therefore not be “long.” I would have thought, then, that most of the reflection on our values would need to have been completed before the creation of an AGI. From what I’ve read of The Precipice, there is no explanation for how a long reflection is compatible with the creation of a human-aligned AGI.