Executive summary: Deterrence by denial—preventing attacks by making them unlikely to succeed—faces significant challenges due to difficulties in credible signalling, the risk of unintended horizontal proliferation, and strategic trade-offs that complicate its implementation as a reliable security strategy.
Key points:
Credible Signalling Challenges: Successful deterrence by denial requires not just strong defences but also credible signalling that adversaries will recognize; however, transparency can reveal vulnerabilities that attackers might exploit.
Information Asymmetry Risks: Different adversaries (e.g., states, terrorist groups, lone actors) respond differently to deterrence signals, and ensuring the right balance of secrecy and visibility is crucial but difficult.
Unintended Horizontal Proliferation: Deterrence by denial can shift the nature of arms races, encouraging adversaries to develop a wider set of offensive capabilities rather than limiting their ability to attack.
Strategic Trade-offs Between Defence and Deterrence: Balancing secrecy (to protect defensive capabilities) with public signalling (to deter attacks) creates conflicts that complicate implementation.
Operational and Cost Burdens: Implementing deterrence by denial requires additional intelligence, coordination, and proactive adaptation to adversary perceptions, increasing costs beyond standard defensive strategies.
Need for Fine-Grained Analysis: Rather than assuming deterrence by denial is universally effective, policymakers should assess its viability based on the specifics of each technology and threat scenario.
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Executive summary: Deterrence by denial—preventing attacks by making them unlikely to succeed—faces significant challenges due to difficulties in credible signalling, the risk of unintended horizontal proliferation, and strategic trade-offs that complicate its implementation as a reliable security strategy.
Key points:
Credible Signalling Challenges: Successful deterrence by denial requires not just strong defences but also credible signalling that adversaries will recognize; however, transparency can reveal vulnerabilities that attackers might exploit.
Information Asymmetry Risks: Different adversaries (e.g., states, terrorist groups, lone actors) respond differently to deterrence signals, and ensuring the right balance of secrecy and visibility is crucial but difficult.
Unintended Horizontal Proliferation: Deterrence by denial can shift the nature of arms races, encouraging adversaries to develop a wider set of offensive capabilities rather than limiting their ability to attack.
Strategic Trade-offs Between Defence and Deterrence: Balancing secrecy (to protect defensive capabilities) with public signalling (to deter attacks) creates conflicts that complicate implementation.
Operational and Cost Burdens: Implementing deterrence by denial requires additional intelligence, coordination, and proactive adaptation to adversary perceptions, increasing costs beyond standard defensive strategies.
Need for Fine-Grained Analysis: Rather than assuming deterrence by denial is universally effective, policymakers should assess its viability based on the specifics of each technology and threat scenario.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.