My largest is that I donât think we should rely heavily on the outside view. The whole EA project is trying to figure out where we can have the largest impact, and this involves thinking carefully about the effects of actions. What happened when people tried things in the past is some evidence, but there are also important differences between what weâre trying and what people have done before (we can learn!), and between previous and current situations (the world changes).
I donât think this analogy fits: Iâm donating to people in both US parties who look like theyâd do good work to reduce risk from AI and bio. I donât really see a way describing these folks as âmy Groupâ makes sense.
It also doesnât look to me like this cuts cleanly even if we do accept the analogy: thereâs also historical precedent for âtry to help poor people effectivelyâ going poorly.
A bunch of objections!
My largest is that I donât think we should rely heavily on the outside view. The whole EA project is trying to figure out where we can have the largest impact, and this involves thinking carefully about the effects of actions. What happened when people tried things in the past is some evidence, but there are also important differences between what weâre trying and what people have done before (we can learn!), and between previous and current situations (the world changes).
I donât think this analogy fits: Iâm donating to people in both US parties who look like theyâd do good work to reduce risk from AI and bio. I donât really see a way describing these folks as âmy Groupâ makes sense.
It also doesnât look to me like this cuts cleanly even if we do accept the analogy: thereâs also historical precedent for âtry to help poor people effectivelyâ going poorly.