If we include descendants as ‘more cost-effective’, then we should include them in the ‘less cost-effective’ column when calculating the possibility that someone who leaves, had they remained, could have had an impact on earlier freedom in North Korea.
Do you mean that a larger NK population in general makes freedom more likely? It isn’t clear to me we should expect much effect at all here, since many will also support the regime due to indoctrination and incentives, although, I suppose more things in general will happen with a larger population? The descendants of people inclined to flee may be disproportionately likely to contribute to freedom there, too, though, due to the influence of their parents.
Sorry I wasn’t clear, I’m thinking on the spot. Say someone who leaves has an x chance of being the spark that starts a revolution within North Korea. Without this person, the chance of revolution has decreased, so it will take longer for it to potentially happen. Therefore, we should include the entire population of North Korea’s happiness plus their descendants to this calculation based on the increased unlikelihood of their freedom.
These probabilities are made up purely for example but say there’s a 0.01% chance any of these people could have helped start a movement towards freeing the entire population. They’ve helped 222 people escape so that’s (222*0.01)%. The population is 25.78m with an average growth rate of ~1.5%. Assume my made up probability above is correct then we’re reducing the chance of this group of people being free by 2% each year for the sake of 222 lives (plus their descendants). The question, I think, is if the possibility of any of these 222 people being a key figure in a potential revolution is high enough that in a population ratio of 1:116,000 it would be better for them to have remained in their country. It’d take many generations from the 222 people to equal the QALY increase of improving the odds of ~26m peoples freedom for a single year by 2%.
On a side note I don’t actually know if you can use probabilities of QALYs like this, so maybe my thinking is flawed. I’m sort of assuming 26m * p gives a rough calculation but as I write this I’m doubting myself.
I’m uncertain about this—I’ve heard people often send messages back, and I imagine a society where people regularly escape the country would be somewhat destabilising as well.
Good points.
Do you mean that a larger NK population in general makes freedom more likely? It isn’t clear to me we should expect much effect at all here, since many will also support the regime due to indoctrination and incentives, although, I suppose more things in general will happen with a larger population? The descendants of people inclined to flee may be disproportionately likely to contribute to freedom there, too, though, due to the influence of their parents.
Sorry I wasn’t clear, I’m thinking on the spot. Say someone who leaves has an x chance of being the spark that starts a revolution within North Korea. Without this person, the chance of revolution has decreased, so it will take longer for it to potentially happen. Therefore, we should include the entire population of North Korea’s happiness plus their descendants to this calculation based on the increased unlikelihood of their freedom.
These probabilities are made up purely for example but say there’s a 0.01% chance any of these people could have helped start a movement towards freeing the entire population. They’ve helped 222 people escape so that’s (222*0.01)%. The population is 25.78m with an average growth rate of ~1.5%. Assume my made up probability above is correct then we’re reducing the chance of this group of people being free by 2% each year for the sake of 222 lives (plus their descendants). The question, I think, is if the possibility of any of these 222 people being a key figure in a potential revolution is high enough that in a population ratio of 1:116,000 it would be better for them to have remained in their country. It’d take many generations from the 222 people to equal the QALY increase of improving the odds of ~26m peoples freedom for a single year by 2%.
On a side note I don’t actually know if you can use probabilities of QALYs like this, so maybe my thinking is flawed. I’m sort of assuming 26m * p gives a rough calculation but as I write this I’m doubting myself.
I’m uncertain about this—I’ve heard people often send messages back, and I imagine a society where people regularly escape the country would be somewhat destabilising as well.
>I’m uncertain about this
So am I!