I think you could build a very compelling case for this. Even if official data sources do underestimate key numbers like overdose deaths, they are still a stirring call to action.
Drug problems have got considerably worse in the past decade. This CDC source implies that overdose rates have more than doubled since 2015. Much of the increase came during the pandemic, which could add a little narrative spice to your argument.
2. Other “similar” problems are not getting worse. Other “despair” indicators like suicide and depression appear to be stable. Road accidents and violence have fallen. On one hand it’s a bit sneaky to pick and choose comparisons like this, but it could be argued that they are all societal problems that often cause (very) early death. They’re tragic.
3. Vaccines/ other pharma interventions may offer an unusually tractable and scalable solution. Addiction and all of the other problems in the chart above are very difficult problems to fight. At best, interventions usually take a chunk out of the burden but offer no hope of big change. Drug interventions can be controversial, with effects of uncertain sign. If you can show that your ideas are significantly better, you are doing well.
I expect that a major difficulty is that your solutions involve developing new vaccines/drugs, which is of course an expensive, unknown and long process. Will pharma companies see potential for a profit? Is there scientific grounding for optimism on these new drugs being possible?
Unfortunately I don’t have the spare capacity to volunteer much time. I’d be interested in giving feedback on any future work. Good luck!
Thanks Stan, I really appreciate it! I have several short articles that I’m writing covering various aspects of this and will reach out to get your feedback when I’m closer.
On question 3-- yes, I think there is reason for optimism that the new treatments under development can work, including vaccines, non-opiate painkillers, addiction reducers, etc. Il’l be writing about this very soon and also looking for experienced pharma folks for thoughts on pipeline to market timing and obstacles.
Whether these treatment will be game-changers or useful additions to our limited toolbox remains to be seen. And whether they will take 15 years to get to market or 5 is what I’m hoping to influence. But there are some human trials already in progress on exciting stuff.
I think you could build a very compelling case for this. Even if official data sources do underestimate key numbers like overdose deaths, they are still a stirring call to action.
Drug problems have got considerably worse in the past decade. This CDC source implies that overdose rates have more than doubled since 2015. Much of the increase came during the pandemic, which could add a little narrative spice to your argument.
2. Other “similar” problems are not getting worse. Other “despair” indicators like suicide and depression appear to be stable. Road accidents and violence have fallen. On one hand it’s a bit sneaky to pick and choose comparisons like this, but it could be argued that they are all societal problems that often cause (very) early death. They’re tragic.
3. Vaccines/ other pharma interventions may offer an unusually tractable and scalable solution. Addiction and all of the other problems in the chart above are very difficult problems to fight. At best, interventions usually take a chunk out of the burden but offer no hope of big change. Drug interventions can be controversial, with effects of uncertain sign. If you can show that your ideas are significantly better, you are doing well.
I expect that a major difficulty is that your solutions involve developing new vaccines/drugs, which is of course an expensive, unknown and long process. Will pharma companies see potential for a profit? Is there scientific grounding for optimism on these new drugs being possible?
Unfortunately I don’t have the spare capacity to volunteer much time. I’d be interested in giving feedback on any future work. Good luck!
Thanks Stan, I really appreciate it! I have several short articles that I’m writing covering various aspects of this and will reach out to get your feedback when I’m closer.
On question 3-- yes, I think there is reason for optimism that the new treatments under development can work, including vaccines, non-opiate painkillers, addiction reducers, etc. Il’l be writing about this very soon and also looking for experienced pharma folks for thoughts on pipeline to market timing and obstacles.
Whether these treatment will be game-changers or useful additions to our limited toolbox remains to be seen. And whether they will take 15 years to get to market or 5 is what I’m hoping to influence. But there are some human trials already in progress on exciting stuff.