Creditors are expected by manifold markets to receive only 40c on each dollar that was invested on the platform (I didn’t notice this info in the post when I previously viewed it). And, we do know why there is money missing: FTX stole it and invested it in their hedge fund, which gambled away and lost the money.
There’s also fairly robust market for (at least larger) real-money claims against FTX with prices around 35-40 cents on the dollar. I’d expect recovery to be somewhat higher in nominal dollars, because it may take some time for distributions to occur and that is presumably priced into the market price. (Anyone with a risk appetite for buying large FTX claims probably thinks their expected rate of return on their next-best investment choice is fairly high, implying a fairly high discount rate is being applied here.)
How about looking at the evidence instead? A large amount of which will soon be evaluated in public court, including testimony from co-conspirators, which is not looking good for SBF.
It’s kinda dumb to speculate now when we are getting a ton of extra evidence in the next month, but I personally think there’s bugger all chance that all the missing billions are recovered.
I’ve added manifold markets and more details from the book, not to be fully trusted on face value. Thought they spent/lost a lot of money, and misused funds in Alameda, they had huge amounts of money, so the book figures suggest that might not account for all the customer funds to be lost (if one writes off VC investment and similar)
Ryan, you continue to make IMO very overconfident criticisms of others relating to FTX, and I think someone should finally draw public attention to the fact that you[1] were actually[2]the person who introduced SBF to earning to give.
I’m not quite sure how this all fits together, but I would guess that these two things are not unrelated. And even that you were probably aware of this, given how in your last post you referenced SBF’s/”Hutch’s” comments on stealing on your Felicifia website (before you pitched earning to give to him, incidentally)?
My aim here is not to criticise you for this. Utilitarians were promoting earning to give at least as far back as 2006, Sam was exposed to utilitarianism a lot growing up and in any case, I don’t share your apparent urge to place a lot of blame at the feet of any person or idea that played a causal role in this chain of events. My aim is to take some of the wind out of your sails—I’m tired of you casting stones. If the motivation comes from psychological projection or deflection, I think it’s important for others to know that.
Michael Lewis tells us that William MacAskill reached out to SBF in SBF’s junior year / “fall of 2012” i.e. September to December. You explained earning to give to SBF in July 2012.
I’m sorry, but it’s not an “overconfident criticism” to accuse FTX of investing stolen money, when this is something that 2-3 of the leaders of FTX have already pled guilty to doing.
This interaction is interesting, but I wasn’t aware of it (I’ve only reread a fraction of Hutch’s messages since knowing his identity) so to the extent that your hypothesis involves me having had some psychological reaction to it, it’s not credible.
Moreover, these psychoanalyses don’t ring true. I’m in a good headspace, giving FTX hardly any attention. Of course, I am not without regret, but I’m generally at peace with my past involvement in EA—not in need of exotic ways to process any feelings. If these analyses being correct would have taken some wind out of my sails, then their being so silly ought to put some more wind in.
On the meta-level, anonymously sharing negative psychoanalyses of people you’re debating seems like very poor behaviour.
Now, I’m a huge fan of anonymity. Sometimes, one must criticise some vindictive organisation, or political orthodoxy, and it’s needed, to avoid some unjust social consequences.
In other cases, anonymity is inessential. One wants to debate in an aggressive style, while avoiding the just social consequences of doing so. When anonymous users misbehave, we think worse of anonymous users in general. If people always write anonymously, then writing anonymously is no-longer a political statement. We no-longer see anonymous writing as a sign that someone might be hiding from unjust retaliation.
Now, Aprilsun wants EA to mostly continue as normal, which is a majority position in EA leadership. And not to look to deeply into who is to blame for FTX, which helps to defend EA leadership. I don’t see any vindictive parties or social orthodoxies being challenged. So why would anonymity be needed?
Independent of aprilsun’s spat with Ryan, I am incredibly grateful they have dug up and linked SBF’s content on Felicifia. I had tried looking for it and failed, including asking people who I thought might know once or twice, and at least partly questioned whether it was an act of imagination on my part or someone else’s that he had posted on there. And the interaction where it seems like Ryan persuaded him of earn-to-give is fascinating as a historical matter (and much less importantly, quite the unilateral first strike to establish a sour internet argument).
Speaking as a moderator, this comment seems to break a number of our norms. It isn’t on-topic, and it’s an unnecessary personal attack. I’d like to see better on the forum.
Creditors are expected by manifold markets to receive only 40c on each dollar that was invested on the platform (I didn’t notice this info in the post when I previously viewed it). And, we do know why there is money missing: FTX stole it and invested it in their hedge fund, which gambled away and lost the money.
There’s also fairly robust market for (at least larger) real-money claims against FTX with prices around 35-40 cents on the dollar. I’d expect recovery to be somewhat higher in nominal dollars, because it may take some time for distributions to occur and that is presumably priced into the market price. (Anyone with a risk appetite for buying large FTX claims probably thinks their expected rate of return on their next-best investment choice is fairly high, implying a fairly high discount rate is being applied here.)
It is a bit disheartening to see that some readers will take the book at face value.
Yes, instead they should take a play money low liquidity prediction market at face value
How about looking at the evidence instead? A large amount of which will soon be evaluated in public court, including testimony from co-conspirators, which is not looking good for SBF.
It’s kinda dumb to speculate now when we are getting a ton of extra evidence in the next month, but I personally think there’s bugger all chance that all the missing billions are recovered.
I’ve added manifold markets and more details from the book, not to be fully trusted on face value. Thought they spent/lost a lot of money, and misused funds in Alameda, they had huge amounts of money, so the book figures suggest that might not account for all the customer funds to be lost (if one writes off VC investment and similar)
Ryan, you continue to make IMO very overconfident criticisms of others relating to FTX, and I think someone should finally draw public attention to the fact that you[1] were actually[2] the person who introduced SBF to earning to give.
I’m not quite sure how this all fits together, but I would guess that these two things are not unrelated. And even that you were probably aware of this, given how in your last post you referenced SBF’s/”Hutch’s” comments on stealing on your Felicifia website (before you pitched earning to give to him, incidentally)?
My aim here is not to criticise you for this. Utilitarians were promoting earning to give at least as far back as 2006, Sam was exposed to utilitarianism a lot growing up and in any case, I don’t share your apparent urge to place a lot of blame at the feet of any person or idea that played a causal role in this chain of events. My aim is to take some of the wind out of your sails—I’m tired of you casting stones. If the motivation comes from psychological projection or deflection, I think it’s important for others to know that.
Michael Lewis tells us that William MacAskill reached out to SBF in SBF’s junior year / “fall of 2012” i.e. September to December. You explained earning to give to SBF in July 2012.
I’m sorry, but it’s not an “overconfident criticism” to accuse FTX of investing stolen money, when this is something that 2-3 of the leaders of FTX have already pled guilty to doing.
This interaction is interesting, but I wasn’t aware of it (I’ve only reread a fraction of Hutch’s messages since knowing his identity) so to the extent that your hypothesis involves me having had some psychological reaction to it, it’s not credible.
Moreover, these psychoanalyses don’t ring true. I’m in a good headspace, giving FTX hardly any attention. Of course, I am not without regret, but I’m generally at peace with my past involvement in EA—not in need of exotic ways to process any feelings. If these analyses being correct would have taken some wind out of my sails, then their being so silly ought to put some more wind in.
“We know they stole it” does indeed seem overconfident at this point (and seem to be part of a pattern).
If you didn’t know about the earning to give intro, fair enough.
My response to the third link is: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/i7DWM6zhhPr2ccq35/thoughts-on-ea-post-ftx?commentId=pJMPeYWzpPYNrhbHT
On the meta-level, anonymously sharing negative psychoanalyses of people you’re debating seems like very poor behaviour.
Now, I’m a huge fan of anonymity. Sometimes, one must criticise some vindictive organisation, or political orthodoxy, and it’s needed, to avoid some unjust social consequences.
In other cases, anonymity is inessential. One wants to debate in an aggressive style, while avoiding the just social consequences of doing so. When anonymous users misbehave, we think worse of anonymous users in general. If people always write anonymously, then writing anonymously is no-longer a political statement. We no-longer see anonymous writing as a sign that someone might be hiding from unjust retaliation.
Now, Aprilsun wants EA to mostly continue as normal, which is a majority position in EA leadership. And not to look to deeply into who is to blame for FTX, which helps to defend EA leadership. I don’t see any vindictive parties or social orthodoxies being challenged. So why would anonymity be needed?
Independent of aprilsun’s spat with Ryan, I am incredibly grateful they have dug up and linked SBF’s content on Felicifia. I had tried looking for it and failed, including asking people who I thought might know once or twice, and at least partly questioned whether it was an act of imagination on my part or someone else’s that he had posted on there. And the interaction where it seems like Ryan persuaded him of earn-to-give is fascinating as a historical matter (and much less importantly, quite the unilateral first strike to establish a sour internet argument).
Speaking as a moderator, this comment seems to break a number of our norms. It isn’t on-topic, and it’s an unnecessary personal attack. I’d like to see better on the forum.