In the original EA Forum Prize, the ex-post EV at the time of evaluation is usually similar to the ex-ante EV assuming that the evaluation happens closely after the post was written. (In a naive impact market, the price of a certificate can be high due to the chance that 3 years from now its ex-post EV will be extremely high.)
So you’re saying it’s fine for them not to make the distinction because they’re so quick that it hardly matters, but that it’s important for us? That makes sense. I suppose that circles back to my earlier comment that I think that our wording is pretty clear about the ex ante nature of the riskiness, but that we can make it even more clear by inserting a few more sentences into the post that make the ex ante part very explicit.
In the original EA Forum Prize, the ex-post EV at the time of evaluation is usually similar to the ex-ante EV assuming that the evaluation happens closely after the post was written. (In a naive impact market, the price of a certificate can be high due to the chance that 3 years from now its ex-post EV will be extremely high.)
So you’re saying it’s fine for them not to make the distinction because they’re so quick that it hardly matters, but that it’s important for us? That makes sense. I suppose that circles back to my earlier comment that I think that our wording is pretty clear about the ex ante nature of the riskiness, but that we can make it even more clear by inserting a few more sentences into the post that make the ex ante part very explicit.