I think the claim that pessimistic longtermism is evolutionarily selected for, because it would cause people to care more about their own families and kin than about far-off generations
Wait sorry, what? No, it would cause people to work on making the future smaller or reduce s-risks or something. Pessimistic longtermists are still longtermists. They do care about far-off generations. They just think it’s ideally better if they don’t exist.[1]
Having clarified that, do you really not find optimistic longtermism more evolutionarily adaptive than pessimistic longtermism? (Let’s forget about agnosticism, here, for simplicity). I mean, the former says “save humanity and increase population size” and the latter says the exact opposite. I find it hard not to think the former favors survival and reproduction more than the latter, all else equal, such that it is more likely to be selected for.
Is it just that we had different definitions of pessimistic longtermism in mind? (I should have been clearer, sorry.)
And btw, this is not necessarily due to them making different moral assumptions than optimistic longtermists. The disagreement might be purely empirical.
What a belief implies about what someone does depends on many other things, like other beliefs and their options in the world. If, e.g., there are more opportunities to work on x-risk reduction than s-risk reduction, then it might be true that optimistic longtermists are less likely than pessimsitic longtermists to form families (because they’re more focused on work) than pessimistic longtermists.
Having clarified that, do you really not find optimistic longtermism more evolutionarily adaptive than pessimistic longtermism?
As my answer made clear, the point I really want to emphasise is that this feels like an absurd exercise — there’s no reason to believe that longtermist beliefs are heritable or selected for in our ancestral environment.
Oh ok so our disagreement is on whether concern for the long-term future needs to be selected for for evolution to “directly” (in the same sense you used it earlier) influence longtermists’ beliefs on the value of X-risk reduction and making the future bigger, right?
Wait sorry, what? No, it would cause people to work on making the future smaller or reduce s-risks or something. Pessimistic longtermists are still longtermists. They do care about far-off generations. They just think it’s ideally better if they don’t exist.[1]
Having clarified that, do you really not find optimistic longtermism more evolutionarily adaptive than pessimistic longtermism? (Let’s forget about agnosticism, here, for simplicity). I mean, the former says “save humanity and increase population size” and the latter says the exact opposite. I find it hard not to think the former favors survival and reproduction more than the latter, all else equal, such that it is more likely to be selected for.
Is it just that we had different definitions of pessimistic longtermism in mind? (I should have been clearer, sorry.)
And btw, this is not necessarily due to them making different moral assumptions than optimistic longtermists. The disagreement might be purely empirical.
What a belief implies about what someone does depends on many other things, like other beliefs and their options in the world. If, e.g., there are more opportunities to work on x-risk reduction than s-risk reduction, then it might be true that optimistic longtermists are less likely than pessimsitic longtermists to form families (because they’re more focused on work) than pessimistic longtermists.
As my answer made clear, the point I really want to emphasise is that this feels like an absurd exercise — there’s no reason to believe that longtermist beliefs are heritable or selected for in our ancestral environment.
Oh ok so our disagreement is on whether concern for the long-term future needs to be selected for for evolution to “directly” (in the same sense you used it earlier) influence longtermists’ beliefs on the value of X-risk reduction and making the future bigger, right?