I very much agree that a larger area burning all at once will loft soot higher on expectation than a thinner moving flame front, because the hot gasses at the center of the burning mass essentially have nowhere to diffuse but up. That specific argument isn’t really a matter of crying wolf, it was just very silly for people to claim that oil well fires could have such big effects in the first place.
That said, this it doesn’t really matter in terms of the estimates here because the soot loft estimate is based on the Los Alamos model, which is also where I’d place my bet for accuracy. Also, the initial Los Alamos model was based on Atlanta’s suburbs which means their outputs are highly relevant for burning in U.S. cities, and cover some of Dave’s objections as well.
I very much agree that a larger area burning all at once will loft soot higher on expectation than a thinner moving flame front, because the hot gasses at the center of the burning mass essentially have nowhere to diffuse but up. That specific argument isn’t really a matter of crying wolf, it was just very silly for people to claim that oil well fires could have such big effects in the first place.
That said, this it doesn’t really matter in terms of the estimates here because the soot loft estimate is based on the Los Alamos model, which is also where I’d place my bet for accuracy. Also, the initial Los Alamos model was based on Atlanta’s suburbs which means their outputs are highly relevant for burning in U.S. cities, and cover some of Dave’s objections as well.