Your post seems fairly well thought out, and is interesting to me as a person who isn’t that interested/invested in AI alignment/development. I have a a few thoughts...
your population estimates talk about growth, but do they take into account the deaths of older generations that might be considered “more religious”?
I am fairly certain that people who are Hindu do not consider Hinduism to be “the one true religion” (or at least the basic teachings to do not say it is), and I know this is the case for other, smaller religions such as Sikhism.
“Christian and Muslims want to go to heaven”—I cannot agree entirely with this statement. My understanding is that if a person accepts Christ as their saviour (and therefore becomes a Christian), they will be rewarded with heaven when they die. They cannot “earn” their way into heaven. However, Christians should strive towards making Earth as close to heaven as possible while they are alive. (I cannot speak to the Islamic beliefs on heaven.) Doesn’t this align with attempts to make the world better, more fair, healthier, etc?
For net increase or decrease in religiosity in the next decades, you’re right that we’d want a more precise demographic model of births, deaths, rates of vertical vs. horizontal cultural transmission for specific religions, etc.
re. Hinduism, I resonate with your sense that lots of Hindus are less inclined to think they’re in the ‘one true religion’ than people in other religions. But I have low confidence in that—I’ve only spent 2 weeks in India, have interacted mostly with highly educated Indians, and don’t know much about Hindu vs. Muslim conflicts over history, or what they reveal about degree of religious exclusivity.
The issue of ‘earning’ one’s way into heaven has been a source of much contention over the centuries, e.g. the Catholic emphasis on good works vs. the Protestant emphasis on faith. Certainly for religious people who emphasize moral behavior in this life, there might be minimal conflict between religious values and EA values. However, many religious people (perhaps especially outside the US/UK/Europe) might put a heavier emphasis on the afterlife (e.g. in cases of religious martyrdom.)
Your post seems fairly well thought out, and is interesting to me as a person who isn’t that interested/invested in AI alignment/development. I have a a few thoughts...
your population estimates talk about growth, but do they take into account the deaths of older generations that might be considered “more religious”?
I am fairly certain that people who are Hindu do not consider Hinduism to be “the one true religion” (or at least the basic teachings to do not say it is), and I know this is the case for other, smaller religions such as Sikhism.
“Christian and Muslims want to go to heaven”—I cannot agree entirely with this statement. My understanding is that if a person accepts Christ as their saviour (and therefore becomes a Christian), they will be rewarded with heaven when they die. They cannot “earn” their way into heaven. However, Christians should strive towards making Earth as close to heaven as possible while they are alive. (I cannot speak to the Islamic beliefs on heaven.) Doesn’t this align with attempts to make the world better, more fair, healthier, etc?
Danielle—good points.
For net increase or decrease in religiosity in the next decades, you’re right that we’d want a more precise demographic model of births, deaths, rates of vertical vs. horizontal cultural transmission for specific religions, etc.
re. Hinduism, I resonate with your sense that lots of Hindus are less inclined to think they’re in the ‘one true religion’ than people in other religions. But I have low confidence in that—I’ve only spent 2 weeks in India, have interacted mostly with highly educated Indians, and don’t know much about Hindu vs. Muslim conflicts over history, or what they reveal about degree of religious exclusivity.
The issue of ‘earning’ one’s way into heaven has been a source of much contention over the centuries, e.g. the Catholic emphasis on good works vs. the Protestant emphasis on faith. Certainly for religious people who emphasize moral behavior in this life, there might be minimal conflict between religious values and EA values. However, many religious people (perhaps especially outside the US/UK/Europe) might put a heavier emphasis on the afterlife (e.g. in cases of religious martyrdom.)