In general I think you’ve thought this through more carefully than me so without having read all your points I’m just gonna agree with you.
So yeah, I think the main problem with Tobias’ original point was that unknown risks are probably mostly new things that haven’t arisen yet and thus the lack of observed mini-versions of them is no evidence against them. But I still think it’s also true that some risks just don’t have mini-versions, or rather are as likely or more likely to have big versions than mini-versions. I agree that most risks are not like this, including some of the examples I reached for initially.
In general I think you’ve thought this through more carefully than me so without having read all your points I’m just gonna agree with you.
So yeah, I think the main problem with Tobias’ original point was that unknown risks are probably mostly new things that haven’t arisen yet and thus the lack of observed mini-versions of them is no evidence against them. But I still think it’s also true that some risks just don’t have mini-versions, or rather are as likely or more likely to have big versions than mini-versions. I agree that most risks are not like this, including some of the examples I reached for initially.