Likewise, AI can arguably be seen as a continuation of past technological, intellectual, scientific, etc. progress in various ways. Of course, various trends might change in shape, speed up, etc. But so far they do seem to have mostly done so somewhat gradually, such that none of the developments would’ve been “ruled out” by expecting the future to looking roughly similar to the past or the past+extrapolation. (I’m not an expert on this, but I think this is roughly the conclusion AI Impacts is arriving at based on their research.)
I agree with all this and don’t think it significantly undermines anything I said.
I think the community has indeed developed more diverse views over the years, but I still think the original take (as seen in Bostrom’s Superintelligence) is the closest to the truth. The fact that the community has gotten more diverse can be easily explained as the result of it growing a lot bigger and having a lot more time to think. (Having a lot more time to think means more scenarios can be considered, more distinctions made, etc. More time for disagreements to arise and more time for those disagreements to seem like big deals when really they are fairly minor; the important things are mostly agreed on but not discussed anymore.) Or maybe you are right and this is evidence that Bostrom is wrong. Idk. But currently I think it is weak evidence, given the above.
I agree with all this and don’t think it significantly undermines anything I said.
I think the community has indeed developed more diverse views over the years, but I still think the original take (as seen in Bostrom’s Superintelligence) is the closest to the truth. The fact that the community has gotten more diverse can be easily explained as the result of it growing a lot bigger and having a lot more time to think. (Having a lot more time to think means more scenarios can be considered, more distinctions made, etc. More time for disagreements to arise and more time for those disagreements to seem like big deals when really they are fairly minor; the important things are mostly agreed on but not discussed anymore.) Or maybe you are right and this is evidence that Bostrom is wrong. Idk. But currently I think it is weak evidence, given the above.