do you really assign probability of less than 0.1^10^10^10, or are you just rationalizing why you aren’t going to give the money?
I find myself asking the opposite whenever someone says they have a very very large good outcome. Didn’t they just make up the amount of really large bigness as an attempt to preempt your assignment of a small probability?
In footnote 2 you ask:
I find myself asking the opposite whenever someone says they have a very very large good outcome. Didn’t they just make up the amount of really large bigness as an attempt to preempt your assignment of a small probability?