I agree that AGI timelines may be very short and even Holden Karnofsky assigns a 10% probability to AGI in the next 15 years. I think at this time everyone should at least think about what they would do if they knew for certain that AGI was coming in the next 15 years and then do at least 10% of that (if not more since in a world where AGI comes soon, you have a lot more impact since there are fewer EAs around). However, I don’t really see what to do about it yet. I think focusing outreach on groups that are more likely to start working on AI safety makes sense. Focusing outreach in circles of ML researchers makes sense. Encouraging EAs currently working in other areas to go work in alignment or AI government makes sense. Curious about what others think.
You write: “I don’t really see what to do about it yet”, but then you provide a bunch of suggestions: “I think focusing outreach on groups that are more likely to start working on AI safety makes sense. Focusing outreach in circles of ML researchers makes sense. Encouraging EAs currently working in other areas to go work in alignment or AI government makes sense.”
Do you mean that you don’t think these are very likely to work, but they’re the best plan you’ve got? Or do you mean something else?
I think these are all valuable, but not much more valuable in a world with short timelines. I wanted to express that I am not sure how we should change our approach in a world with short timelines. So I think these ideas are net positive but I’m uncertain whether they are much of an update
I think that Holden assigns more than a 10% chance to AGI in the next 15 years, the post that you linked to says ‘more than a 10% chance we’ll see transformative AI within 15 years’.
I agree that AGI timelines may be very short and even Holden Karnofsky assigns a 10% probability to AGI in the next 15 years. I think at this time everyone should at least think about what they would do if they knew for certain that AGI was coming in the next 15 years and then do at least 10% of that (if not more since in a world where AGI comes soon, you have a lot more impact since there are fewer EAs around). However, I don’t really see what to do about it yet. I think focusing outreach on groups that are more likely to start working on AI safety makes sense. Focusing outreach in circles of ML researchers makes sense. Encouraging EAs currently working in other areas to go work in alignment or AI government makes sense. Curious about what others think.
I don’t suppose you could clarify your comment?
You write: “I don’t really see what to do about it yet”, but then you provide a bunch of suggestions: “I think focusing outreach on groups that are more likely to start working on AI safety makes sense. Focusing outreach in circles of ML researchers makes sense. Encouraging EAs currently working in other areas to go work in alignment or AI government makes sense.”
Do you mean that you don’t think these are very likely to work, but they’re the best plan you’ve got? Or do you mean something else?
I think these are all valuable, but not much more valuable in a world with short timelines. I wanted to express that I am not sure how we should change our approach in a world with short timelines. So I think these ideas are net positive but I’m uncertain whether they are much of an update
I think that Holden assigns more than a 10% chance to AGI in the next 15 years, the post that you linked to says ‘more than a 10% chance we’ll see transformative AI within 15 years’.