As I see, the point is to estimate when extinction would occur by estimating the distribution of population accross time, right? So we use a Rule of Succession-like reasoning… I’m ok with that, so far. N humans have lived, so we can expect more N humans to live, we can update our estimate each time a new one is born...But then, why don’t we use the time humnas have already lived on Earth as input instead? I mean, that’s Toby Ord’s Precipice argument, right? So 200k years without extinction lead you to a very different guesstimate.