The idea that we might see AIs fully outcompete low-skill humans in the next few decades, but not fully outcompete higher-skill humans until decades after that, seems intuitively a bit weird to me
It seems possible that the reverse will happen. Frey and Osborne is probably outdated now, but it predicted that e.g. insurance underwriters are substantially more likely to be computerized than makeup artists.[1]
It seems possible that the reverse will happen. Frey and Osborne is probably outdated now, but it predicted that e.g. insurance underwriters are substantially more likely to be computerized than makeup artists.[1]
Arguably you can interpret this to mean that makeup artists are higher-skill than insurance underwriters, of course