I’d guess we’re getting slightly better, yep. I might put less weight on the evidence you mention, than on: “We’re living in a period of really unprecedented AI progress, seems like that puts in a better position to reason about the mechanisms governing the far future than ever before.”
I’d guess we’re getting slightly better, yep. I might put less weight on the evidence you mention, than on: “We’re living in a period of really unprecedented AI progress, seems like that puts in a better position to reason about the mechanisms governing the far future than ever before.”