Executive summary: Scorable functions, which allow forecasters to submit executable models instead of just point estimates, could significantly enhance the capabilities of forecasting platforms to address complex, conditional questions.
Key points:
Scorable functions enable encoding complex relationships, dependencies, and scenario analysis compared to traditional forecasting methods.
Forecasters submit actual code (e.g., Python functions) that platforms can evaluate on-demand to generate up-to-date, conditional forecasts.
Scorable functions are modular and reusable, allowing small functions modeling individual components to be combined into more sophisticated models.
Implementing scorable functions presents challenges for platforms, such as continuous model updating, interoperability, cost management, and user-friendly tools.
Experimentation and incremental development will be key to realizing the potential of scorable functions for forecasting.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Scorable functions, which allow forecasters to submit executable models instead of just point estimates, could significantly enhance the capabilities of forecasting platforms to address complex, conditional questions.
Key points:
Scorable functions enable encoding complex relationships, dependencies, and scenario analysis compared to traditional forecasting methods.
Forecasters submit actual code (e.g., Python functions) that platforms can evaluate on-demand to generate up-to-date, conditional forecasts.
Scorable functions are modular and reusable, allowing small functions modeling individual components to be combined into more sophisticated models.
Implementing scorable functions presents challenges for platforms, such as continuous model updating, interoperability, cost management, and user-friendly tools.
Experimentation and incremental development will be key to realizing the potential of scorable functions for forecasting.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.