I like this approach, even though I’m unsure of what to conclude from it. In particular, I like the introduction of the accident vs non-accident distinction. It’s hard to get an intuition of what the relative chances of a bio-x-catastrophe and an AI-x-catastrophe are. It’s easier to have intuitions about the relative chances of:
Accidental vs non-accidental bio-x-catastrophes
Non-accidental AI-x-catastrophes vs non-accidental bio-x-catastrophes
Accidental vs non-accidental AI-x-catastrophes
That’s what you’re making use of in this post. Regardless of what one thinks of the conclusion, the methodology is interesting.
I like this approach, even though I’m unsure of what to conclude from it. In particular, I like the introduction of the accident vs non-accident distinction. It’s hard to get an intuition of what the relative chances of a bio-x-catastrophe and an AI-x-catastrophe are. It’s easier to have intuitions about the relative chances of:
Accidental vs non-accidental bio-x-catastrophes
Non-accidental AI-x-catastrophes vs non-accidental bio-x-catastrophes
Accidental vs non-accidental AI-x-catastrophes
That’s what you’re making use of in this post. Regardless of what one thinks of the conclusion, the methodology is interesting.