Estimates from The Precipice.
| Stellar explosion | 1 in 1,000,000,000 || Asteroid or comet impact | 1 in 1,000,000 || Supervolcanic eruption | 1 in 10,000 || “Naturally” arising pandemics | 1 in 10,000 ||-------------------------------+--------------------|| Total natural risk | 1 in 10,000 || Nuclear war | 1 in 1,000 || Climate change | 1 in 1,000 || Other environmental damage | 1 in 1,000 || Engineered pandemics | 1 in 30 || Unaligned artificial intelligence | 1 in 10 || Unforeseen anthropogenic risks | 1 in 30 || Other anthropogenic risks | 1 in 50 ||-----------------------------------+------------|| Total anthropogenic risk | 1 in 6 ||------------------------+--------|| Total existential risk | 1 in 6 |
Estimates from The Precipice.