Also do you count people that sympathize with EA ideas as EAs? Fred Ehrsam and Brian Armstrong have both wrote positively about EA in the past. I have seen on Twitter a handful of 9-10 figure net worth crypto hedge fund managers talk about Less Wrong and a few talk about EA.
I interpret it more strictly than that. One of the markets I mention refers to people “who identify as effective altruists”, and the other as “either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis”.
I suspect this would exclude some/most of the people you mention?
Fwiw, here are the model outputs with some other assumptions in current # of EA billionaires:
7 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 4.0 expected new billionaires, 18% chance of >=10.
7 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 8.8 expected new billionaires, 41% chance of >= 10.
10 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 4.4 expected new billionaires, 27% chance of >=10.
10 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 12.2 expected new billionaires, 55% chance of >= 10.
15 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 5.3 expected new billionaires, 32% chance of >=10.
15 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 17.3 expected new billionaires, 67% chance of >= 10.
If there is another crypto bull market and Bitcoin hits $200k, I remember seeing a BOTEC that half of all the new billionaires in the world will be due to crypto.
Yeah, true, crypto seems like an interesting wild card which could make the current base rate conservative.
Thanks!
I interpret it more strictly than that. One of the markets I mention refers to people “who identify as effective altruists”, and the other as “either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis”.
I suspect this would exclude some/most of the people you mention?
Fwiw, here are the model outputs with some other assumptions in current # of EA billionaires:
7 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 4.0 expected new billionaires, 18% chance of >=10.
7 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 8.8 expected new billionaires, 41% chance of >= 10.
10 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 4.4 expected new billionaires, 27% chance of >=10.
10 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 12.2 expected new billionaires, 55% chance of >= 10.
15 current EA billionaires (as upper bound): 5.3 expected new billionaires, 32% chance of >=10.
15 current EA billionaires (ignoring Ivy League base rate): 17.3 expected new billionaires, 67% chance of >= 10.
Yeah, true, crypto seems like an interesting wild card which could make the current base rate conservative.