Upvoted because I don’t think this tension is discussed enough, even if to refute it.
It strikes me that the median non-EA is more risk averse than EAs should be, so moving non-EA to EA you should probably drop some of your risk aversion. But it does also seem true that the top performing people in your field might disproportionately be people who took negative EV bets and got lucky, so we don’t necessarily want to be less risk averse than them.
Upvoted because I don’t think this tension is discussed enough, even if to refute it.
It strikes me that the median non-EA is more risk averse than EAs should be, so moving non-EA to EA you should probably drop some of your risk aversion. But it does also seem true that the top performing people in your field might disproportionately be people who took negative EV bets and got lucky, so we don’t necessarily want to be less risk averse than them.