Thanks for writing this, this is a super valuable question to be asking. Iâve been wondering about this myself recently.
Can I ask what your level of confidence is for these conclusions, or your knowledge of China generally, given that you stated you are more familiar with the U.S.? My level of information about China is not super high either (I do have a degree in Global and International Studies, but spent relatively little time focused on China), but I did find myself questioning some arguments /â wondering what info they are based on. This is a valuable exercise even if you donât have high confidence in your China knowledge, but it would be helpful to have a sense of what that level is.
If it helps for context, hereâs some examples of what stuck out to me:
Moral innovation: How did you take Eastern philosophical traditions into consideration? They do have their own, distinct philosophical tradition; very different from Western philosophy, but it does exist and leads them to different conclusions. Claims like âMoral philosophy research also seems far stronger in the West than in Chinaâ had me wanting some sort of citation. I donât have enough info to strenuously disagree, but enough to be skeptical without citation. I buy that the schools of thought you are âmost aligned withâ are more prominent in the West, but that doesnât mean they donât have competing schools of thought that could still lead to âgoodâ outcomes.
Economic stasis: I have some uncertainty that this is true for China currently, or at least in the near future, and even less moving into the far-future. Itâs possible I am over-updating based on some recent thinking in the field (basic example here). Not a strong disagreement, and itâs very possible I misunderstood your argument here.
I hope that this doesnât come across as super critical! (Tone online can be hard to get right). I think this was a really good post and found it very valuable, I just feel it would be good to know up front how highly you would rate your knowledge/âconfidence that led to these conclusions.
Thanks, not over-critical at all! Good point: I am fairly confident that by my values a US-led future would be better, but I am quite uncertain how large this effect is, and each individual consideration/âargument is fairly fuzzy.
I donât have any particular China expertise, but I work in international AI governance so try to stay quite familiar with at least AI-relevant aspects of things going on in China.
Moral innovation: I was considering citing something like comparing some university rankings for philosophy vs natural sciences where Chinese universities seem to do better in the latter than the former. But Iâm not sure how much to trust such rankings, and my claim is more vibes-based that even though things I hear are very Western-tinted, I feel far more likely to hear about cutting-edge scientific work coming out of China than cutting-edge philosophy. Though yes, of course it is also the case that I personally just find Western philosophy more useful (specifically analytic philosophy, not continental).
Economic stasis: True, I think China is becoming more innovative and dynamic technologically/âeconomically, and it is possible it will overall catch up with the West. Though my guess is that liberal, capitalist political-economic systems will still overall prove better for long-run innovation.
Thanks for writing this, this is a super valuable question to be asking. Iâve been wondering about this myself recently.
Can I ask what your level of confidence is for these conclusions, or your knowledge of China generally, given that you stated you are more familiar with the U.S.? My level of information about China is not super high either (I do have a degree in Global and International Studies, but spent relatively little time focused on China), but I did find myself questioning some arguments /â wondering what info they are based on. This is a valuable exercise even if you donât have high confidence in your China knowledge, but it would be helpful to have a sense of what that level is.
If it helps for context, hereâs some examples of what stuck out to me:
Moral innovation: How did you take Eastern philosophical traditions into consideration? They do have their own, distinct philosophical tradition; very different from Western philosophy, but it does exist and leads them to different conclusions. Claims like âMoral philosophy research also seems far stronger in the West than in Chinaâ had me wanting some sort of citation. I donât have enough info to strenuously disagree, but enough to be skeptical without citation. I buy that the schools of thought you are âmost aligned withâ are more prominent in the West, but that doesnât mean they donât have competing schools of thought that could still lead to âgoodâ outcomes.
Economic stasis: I have some uncertainty that this is true for China currently, or at least in the near future, and even less moving into the far-future. Itâs possible I am over-updating based on some recent thinking in the field (basic example here). Not a strong disagreement, and itâs very possible I misunderstood your argument here.
I hope that this doesnât come across as super critical! (Tone online can be hard to get right). I think this was a really good post and found it very valuable, I just feel it would be good to know up front how highly you would rate your knowledge/âconfidence that led to these conclusions.
Thanks, not over-critical at all! Good point: I am fairly confident that by my values a US-led future would be better, but I am quite uncertain how large this effect is, and each individual consideration/âargument is fairly fuzzy.
I donât have any particular China expertise, but I work in international AI governance so try to stay quite familiar with at least AI-relevant aspects of things going on in China.
Moral innovation: I was considering citing something like comparing some university rankings for philosophy vs natural sciences where Chinese universities seem to do better in the latter than the former. But Iâm not sure how much to trust such rankings, and my claim is more vibes-based that even though things I hear are very Western-tinted, I feel far more likely to hear about cutting-edge scientific work coming out of China than cutting-edge philosophy. Though yes, of course it is also the case that I personally just find Western philosophy more useful (specifically analytic philosophy, not continental).
Economic stasis: True, I think China is becoming more innovative and dynamic technologically/âeconomically, and it is possible it will overall catch up with the West. Though my guess is that liberal, capitalist political-economic systems will still overall prove better for long-run innovation.