With the assumption of longtermist ethics which I mentioned in the post, I think the difference in likelihoods has to be very large to make a difference though. Because placing equal value on future human lives to present ones makes extinction risks astronomically worse than catastrophic non-extinction risks.
(I don’t 100% subscribe to longtermist ethics, but that was the frame I was taking for this post.)
That’s a very good point.
With the assumption of longtermist ethics which I mentioned in the post, I think the difference in likelihoods has to be very large to make a difference though. Because placing equal value on future human lives to present ones makes extinction risks astronomically worse than catastrophic non-extinction risks.
(I don’t 100% subscribe to longtermist ethics, but that was the frame I was taking for this post.)