There are a few blind-spots with this competition, and I am sitting where they intersect:
The Ethical Demand to Stop Bad Predictions—If I have a prediction that “this plane will crash”, then it is wrong of me to make money off of that catastrophe, by allowing it to happen. I would be an accomplice. So, if I predict a negative outcome, I will attempt to prevent that outcome. Necessarily, my success would make my prediction false, yet it would be false for the wrong reason.
Who Creates and Chooses the Topics—Metacalculus is generating the topics, and then your team is curating them. This leaves-out everyone who has a unique prediction. [For example: “Brick-laying robots will cut house construction costs, which will ripple-out quickly due to ‘comps’, the way real estate is valued. That’s when real estate investors stop buying; it’s a falling knife. As a result, most Americans will be underwater on their mortgage in a decade.” Where do I tell people that prediction? How does it pass your curation?]
It’s a troublesome sign when the boss of the company says “Here is THE problem—how do you solve it?” Better when the boss asks “What’s the problem?” I don’t see forecasting succeeding at its aim, if it fails to be receptive to unique outsider predictions, or those are lost in a pile due to curation-by-tiny-groups. And, waiting for bad things to happen just to make a few bucks sounds like becoming a henchmen to me. Who wants to avert calamity, instead?
There are a few blind-spots with this competition, and I am sitting where they intersect:
The Ethical Demand to Stop Bad Predictions—If I have a prediction that “this plane will crash”, then it is wrong of me to make money off of that catastrophe, by allowing it to happen. I would be an accomplice. So, if I predict a negative outcome, I will attempt to prevent that outcome. Necessarily, my success would make my prediction false, yet it would be false for the wrong reason.
Who Creates and Chooses the Topics—Metacalculus is generating the topics, and then your team is curating them. This leaves-out everyone who has a unique prediction. [For example: “Brick-laying robots will cut house construction costs, which will ripple-out quickly due to ‘comps’, the way real estate is valued. That’s when real estate investors stop buying; it’s a falling knife. As a result, most Americans will be underwater on their mortgage in a decade.” Where do I tell people that prediction? How does it pass your curation?]
It’s a troublesome sign when the boss of the company says “Here is THE problem—how do you solve it?” Better when the boss asks “What’s the problem?” I don’t see forecasting succeeding at its aim, if it fails to be receptive to unique outsider predictions, or those are lost in a pile due to curation-by-tiny-groups. And, waiting for bad things to happen just to make a few bucks sounds like becoming a henchmen to me. Who wants to avert calamity, instead?