There are good points and helpful, thanks! I agree I wasn’t clear about viewing the scenarios exclusively in the initial comment, I think I made that a little clearer in the follow up.
when I read 80% to reach saturation at 40% predictive power I read this as “capping out at around 40%” which would only leave a maximum of 20% for scenarios with much greater than 40%?
Ah I think I see how that’s confusing. My use of the term saturation probably confuses things too much. My understanding is saturation is the likely maximum that could be explained with current approaches, so my forecast was an 80% chance we get to the 40% “saturation” level, but I think there’s a decent chance our technology/understanding advances so that more than the saturation can be explained, and I gave a 30% chance that we reach 80% predictive power.
That’s a good point about iterated embryo selection, I totally neglected that. My initial thought is it would probably overlap a lot with the scenarios I used, but I should have given that more thought and discussed it in my comment.
There are good points and helpful, thanks! I agree I wasn’t clear about viewing the scenarios exclusively in the initial comment, I think I made that a little clearer in the follow up.
Ah I think I see how that’s confusing. My use of the term saturation probably confuses things too much. My understanding is saturation is the likely maximum that could be explained with current approaches, so my forecast was an 80% chance we get to the 40% “saturation” level, but I think there’s a decent chance our technology/understanding advances so that more than the saturation can be explained, and I gave a 30% chance that we reach 80% predictive power.
That’s a good point about iterated embryo selection, I totally neglected that. My initial thought is it would probably overlap a lot with the scenarios I used, but I should have given that more thought and discussed it in my comment.