One particularly confusing fact is that OAI’s valuation appears to have gone from $14 billion in 2021 to $19 billion in 2023. Even ignoring anything about transformative AI, I would have expected that the success of ChatGPT etc. should have resulted in a more than a 35% increase.
I’ve frequently seen people fail to consider the fact that potential competitors (including borderline copycats) can significantly undermine the profitability of one company’s technology, even if the technology could generate substantial revenue. Are you taking this into account?
I have not done a formal analysis, but yes, even given the possibility of copycats I still feel like the unexpected success of ChatGPT should have resulted in more than a 35% increase to their value.
Yes, absolutely! It’s important to recognize and account for the potential impact of competitors, including those who may closely replicate a company’s technology or offerings. Competition in the market can indeed pose a significant threat to the profitability of a company, regardless of how promising its technology might be. Even if a technology has the potential to generate substantial revenue, if competitors emerge with similar or even slightly different solutions, it can lead to a loss of market share and decreased profitability.
I’ve frequently seen people fail to consider the fact that potential competitors (including borderline copycats) can significantly undermine the profitability of one company’s technology, even if the technology could generate substantial revenue. Are you taking this into account?
I have not done a formal analysis, but yes, even given the possibility of copycats I still feel like the unexpected success of ChatGPT should have resulted in more than a 35% increase to their value.
Yes, absolutely! It’s important to recognize and account for the potential impact of competitors, including those who may closely replicate a company’s technology or offerings. Competition in the market can indeed pose a significant threat to the profitability of a company, regardless of how promising its technology might be. Even if a technology has the potential to generate substantial revenue, if competitors emerge with similar or even slightly different solutions, it can lead to a loss of market share and decreased profitability.