A BOTEC indicates that Open AI might have been valued at >200x their annual recurring revenue, which is by far the highest multiple I can find evidence of for a company of that size. This seems consistent with the view that markets think OAI will be exceptional, but not “equivalent to the Industrial Revolution” exceptional, and a variety of factors make this multiple hard to interpret.
I would be very cautious about trying to extract information from private valuations, especially at this still somewhat early stage. Private markets are far less efficient than public ones, large funding rounds are less efficient still, and large funding rounds led by the organization that controls your infrastructure might as well be poker games.
Agreed that it’s hard to precisely interpret private valuations, but if e.g. we knew for certainty that OAI would be valued at $1T 10 years from now, it’s hard to imagine their round closing for $19B today. So this places some bounds on investor expectations of future growth.
I would be very cautious about trying to extract information from private valuations, especially at this still somewhat early stage. Private markets are far less efficient than public ones, large funding rounds are less efficient still, and large funding rounds led by the organization that controls your infrastructure might as well be poker games.
Agreed that it’s hard to precisely interpret private valuations, but if e.g. we knew for certainty that OAI would be valued at $1T 10 years from now, it’s hard to imagine their round closing for $19B today. So this places some bounds on investor expectations of future growth.