To clarify for future reference, I do think it’s likely (80%+) that at some point over the next 5 years there will be a large reduction in investment in AI and a corresponding market crash in AI company stocks, etc, and that both will continue to be for at least three months.
Update: I now think this is 90%+ likely to happen (from original prediction date).
Update: I now think this is 90%+ likely to happen (from original prediction date).
Update: reverting my forecast back to 80% chance likelihood for these reasons.