Executive summary: This exploratory analysis argues that the far future is likely to be shaped by at least slightly misaligned values—especially regarding digital minds and population ethics—but maintains cautious optimism that the future will still be net positive, particularly if superintelligent AI helps humanity reason better about ethics.
Key points:
Far-future misalignment is probable (≈70%) but not necessarily catastrophic: While future values may deviate from the ideal—e.g., by ignoring digital minds or holding flawed population ethics—they are unlikely to be actively malevolent; most misalignment would likely reduce value rather than create disvalue.
Digital minds will likely dominate the future moral landscape: Given their expected abundance and scalability, digital minds are likely to vastly outnumber biological ones, making their treatment the central determinant of far-future value.
Arguments for misalignment include:
A historical trend of moral blind spots (e.g., slavery, factory farming).
Lack of a clear mechanism to ensure correct moral values emerge.
Deeply held but possibly harmful values, such as pro-nature biases.
The difficulty of detecting consciousness in non-human entities.
Arguments against misalignment include:
Potential for AI-assisted moral reflection to converge on better values.
Historical moral circle expansion, suggesting growing moral inclusivity—though the author cautions against overconfidence in this trend.
One of the most worrying misalignment scenarios is person-affecting ethics: If future actors believe creating new happy lives is morally neutral or unimportant, we might fail to realize vast amounts of potential value.
Moral circle expansion and philosophical clarity are crucial: Expanding ethical concern to digital minds and improving population ethics may be key levers for ensuring a valuable future, and are priorities regardless of one’s stance on moral realism.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: This exploratory analysis argues that the far future is likely to be shaped by at least slightly misaligned values—especially regarding digital minds and population ethics—but maintains cautious optimism that the future will still be net positive, particularly if superintelligent AI helps humanity reason better about ethics.
Key points:
Far-future misalignment is probable (≈70%) but not necessarily catastrophic: While future values may deviate from the ideal—e.g., by ignoring digital minds or holding flawed population ethics—they are unlikely to be actively malevolent; most misalignment would likely reduce value rather than create disvalue.
Digital minds will likely dominate the future moral landscape: Given their expected abundance and scalability, digital minds are likely to vastly outnumber biological ones, making their treatment the central determinant of far-future value.
Arguments for misalignment include:
A historical trend of moral blind spots (e.g., slavery, factory farming).
Lack of a clear mechanism to ensure correct moral values emerge.
Deeply held but possibly harmful values, such as pro-nature biases.
The difficulty of detecting consciousness in non-human entities.
Arguments against misalignment include:
Potential for AI-assisted moral reflection to converge on better values.
Historical moral circle expansion, suggesting growing moral inclusivity—though the author cautions against overconfidence in this trend.
One of the most worrying misalignment scenarios is person-affecting ethics: If future actors believe creating new happy lives is morally neutral or unimportant, we might fail to realize vast amounts of potential value.
Moral circle expansion and philosophical clarity are crucial: Expanding ethical concern to digital minds and improving population ethics may be key levers for ensuring a valuable future, and are priorities regardless of one’s stance on moral realism.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.