Have you looked at the fertility rate underlying the UN projections? They’re projecting fertility rates across China, Japan, Europe, and the United States to arrest their yearly decline and begin to slowly move up back to somewhere in the 1.5 to 1.6 range.
That seems way too high because it’s assuming not just that current trends stop but that they reverse to the opposite direction of that observed. Even their “low” scenario has fertility rebounding from a low in ~2030.
This despite all those countries still have a way to go before they get to the low South Korea has reached at 0.88.
Have you looked at the fertility rate underlying the UN projections? They’re projecting fertility rates across China, Japan, Europe, and the United States to arrest their yearly decline and begin to slowly move up back to somewhere in the 1.5 to 1.6 range.
That seems way too high because it’s assuming not just that current trends stop but that they reverse to the opposite direction of that observed. Even their “low” scenario has fertility rebounding from a low in ~2030.
This despite all those countries still have a way to go before they get to the low South Korea has reached at 0.88.
See https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=2000..latest&facet=none&country=High-income+countries~OWID_WRL~NGA~CHN~IND~Europe+%28UN%29~USA~JPN~KOR&hideControls=true&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Low