Yes Russia had convinced others and FSB had convinced Putin that it’s military was much better than it actually was; a key reason why the advances stalled and probably also why Putin launched the war.
But specifically about underestimating Ukraine’s chances, I think the “agency” did impact outcomes a lot. The willingness and ability by society to decide and agree on what’s best for the country and act accordingly is roughly what I mean by “agency” in this context.
Yes Russia had convinced others and FSB had convinced Putin that it’s military was much better than it actually was; a key reason why the advances stalled and probably also why Putin launched the war.
But specifically about underestimating Ukraine’s chances, I think the “agency” did impact outcomes a lot. The willingness and ability by society to decide and agree on what’s best for the country and act accordingly is roughly what I mean by “agency” in this context.
Had Zelensky accepted offers to flee and had UA society and military accepted the outside views in the first days of the war, then the RU military could have advanced relatively easily. Even in the poor condition that it was in. But resistance had a huge backing from Ukrainians, that is why Zelensky’s popularity soared from 27% to 80-90% when he declined offers to flee. Seems likely to me that Putin did not expect that, expected a large part of population to welcome his soldiers are liberators from the unpopular government.
https://iwpr.net/global-voices/zelenskys-approval-ratings-soar-amid-war
https://ratinggroup.ua/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_26-27_fevralya_2022_goda.html