Why would it be fought almost entirely in the air and sea? That sounds like a best or worst-case scenario, i.e., China isn’t able to actually land or China achieves air and naval superiority around Taiwan. The advanced weapons systems Ukraine has received seem very relevant: Storm shadow, HIMARs, Abrams + Leoopard, Patriot, Javelin, etc. And shipping weapons doesn’t seem to require the war to be essentially won, just that the US can achieve local air and naval superiority over part of Taiwan with a harbour. Complete dominance of the skies in a conflict is rare.
It’s unlikely that both the US and China can get mass numbers of supplies to Taiwan. If you can get a (slow/big/vulnerable) freighter to Taiwan you can also almost certainly get an armed military ship, a submarine, or a stealth fighter to Taiwan.
the US can achieve local air and naval superiority over part of Taiwan with a harbour.
I’m not sure what you mean by “local superiority”. Virtually every modern anti-ship missile has enough range to completely cover Taiwan. Taiwan is only 150 miles wide, so the LRASM/JSM/YJ-12 etc all have enough range to go from one side to the other, and most of these have enough range to completely cover the island. It’s questionable (but plausible) whether a carrier a thousand miles out can survive, let alone a (slow and vulnerable) freighter sailing right up to Taiwan.
Complete dominance of the skies in a conflict is rare.
The absence of complete dominance of the skies means that neither side can safely move around, not that both sides can safely move around. e.g. in Ukraine neither side has complete dominance of the skies, but that certainly doesn’t mean that it’s safe for either side to be flying cargo planes to the front lines.
It’s unlikely that both the US and China can get mass numbers of supplies to Taiwan. If you can get a (slow/big/vulnerable) freighter to Taiwan you can also almost certainly get an armed military ship, a submarine, or a stealth fighter to Taiwan.
I’m not sure what you mean by “local superiority”. Virtually every modern anti-ship missile has enough range to completely cover Taiwan. Taiwan is only 150 miles wide, so the LRASM/JSM/YJ-12 etc all have enough range to go from one side to the other, and most of these have enough range to completely cover the island. It’s questionable (but plausible) whether a carrier a thousand miles out can survive, let alone a (slow and vulnerable) freighter sailing right up to Taiwan.
The absence of complete dominance of the skies means that neither side can safely move around, not that both sides can safely move around. e.g. in Ukraine neither side has complete dominance of the skies, but that certainly doesn’t mean that it’s safe for either side to be flying cargo planes to the front lines.