Thank you for engaging with and critiquing the cost-effectiveness analysis, Michael! There seem to be a few misunderstandings I would like to correct.
The CEE in the linked Guesstimate looks optimistic to the point of being impossible. Given the quoted numbers of 32 acts of kindness per day with each act producing an average of 0.7 happy hours, that’s 22 happy hours produced per person-day of acts of kindness. If you said people’s acts of kindness increased overall happiness by 10%, I’d say that sounds too high. If you say it produces 22 happy hours, when the average person is only awake for 17 hours...well that’s not even possible.
The value you calculated is the sum of the additional happiness of all the people to whom the person was kind. This includes everyone they interacted with that day in any way. This includes everyone from the strangers they smiled at, to the friends they messaged, the colleagues they helped at work, the customers they served, their children, their partner, and their parents and other family members. If you consider that the benefit for the kindness might be benefited over more than a dozen people, then 22 hours of happiness, might be no more than 1-2 hours per person. Moreover, the estimates also take into account that a person who benefits from your kindness today might still be slightly more happy tomorrow.
I am also very skeptical of the reported claim that a one-time intervention of “watching an elevating video, enacting prosocial behaviors, and reflecting on how those behaviors relate to one’s value” (Baumsteiger 2019) can produce an average of 1600 additional acts of kindness per person. That number sounds about 1000x too high to me.
The intervention by Baumsteiger (2019) was a multi-session program that lasted 12 days and involved planning, performing, and documenting one’s prosocial behavior for 10 days in a row. The effect sizes distribution in the Guesstimate model is based on many different studies, some of which were even more intensive.
In general, psych studies are infamous for reporting impossibly massive effects and then failing to replicate.
Most of the estimates are based on meta-analyses of many studies. The results of meta-analyses are substantially more robust and more reliable than the result of a single study.
I think you are right that this first estimate was too optimistic. In particular, the probability distribution of the frequency of prosocial behavior is currently based on four estimates from different studies. One of those studies led to an estimate that appears to be far too high. This might be because they defined prosocial behavior more liberally because it involved interactions with children, or because participants knew that they were being observed. I will think about what the more general problem might be and how it can be addressed systematically.
Thank you for engaging with and critiquing the cost-effectiveness analysis, Michael! There seem to be a few misunderstandings I would like to correct.
The value you calculated is the sum of the additional happiness of all the people to whom the person was kind. This includes everyone they interacted with that day in any way. This includes everyone from the strangers they smiled at, to the friends they messaged, the colleagues they helped at work, the customers they served, their children, their partner, and their parents and other family members. If you consider that the benefit for the kindness might be benefited over more than a dozen people, then 22 hours of happiness, might be no more than 1-2 hours per person. Moreover, the estimates also take into account that a person who benefits from your kindness today might still be slightly more happy tomorrow.
The intervention by Baumsteiger (2019) was a multi-session program that lasted 12 days and involved planning, performing, and documenting one’s prosocial behavior for 10 days in a row. The effect sizes distribution in the Guesstimate model is based on many different studies, some of which were even more intensive.
Most of the estimates are based on meta-analyses of many studies. The results of meta-analyses are substantially more robust and more reliable than the result of a single study.
I think you are right that this first estimate was too optimistic. In particular, the probability distribution of the frequency of prosocial behavior is currently based on four estimates from different studies. One of those studies led to an estimate that appears to be far too high. This might be because they defined prosocial behavior more liberally because it involved interactions with children, or because participants knew that they were being observed. I will think about what the more general problem might be and how it can be addressed systematically.