Thank you for your feedback, Michael, and thank you very much for making me aware of those specialized prediction platforms. I really like your suggestion. I think making predictions about the likely results of replication studies would be helpful for me. It would push me to critically examine and quantify how much confidence I should put in the studies my models rely on. Obtaining the predictions of other people would be a good way to make that assessment more objective. We could then incorporate the aggregate prediction into the model. Moreover, we could use prediction markets to obtain estimates or forecasts for quantities for which no published studies are available yet. I think it might be a good idea to incorporate those steps into our methodology. I will discuss that with our team today.
Thank you for your feedback, Michael, and thank you very much for making me aware of those specialized prediction platforms. I really like your suggestion. I think making predictions about the likely results of replication studies would be helpful for me. It would push me to critically examine and quantify how much confidence I should put in the studies my models rely on. Obtaining the predictions of other people would be a good way to make that assessment more objective. We could then incorporate the aggregate prediction into the model. Moreover, we could use prediction markets to obtain estimates or forecasts for quantities for which no published studies are available yet. I think it might be a good idea to incorporate those steps into our methodology. I will discuss that with our team today.