The Middle East was rocked by a series of deadly clashes: measured by intensity (deaths divided by the population of the countries involved), the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s was the third bloodiest war of all time.[1]
Wait, really? I thought there were plenty of wars in the past where a significant fraction of an entire region was killed. Like, 75%.
Also, shouldn’t intensity be deaths per year divided by population of the countries involved?
Ah, great catch. It’s the third-bloodiest war in the time period Braumoeller considers, i.e. 1816-2007. That’s super different, so thanks! I’ve edited the main text.
On intensity—Braumoeller thinks dividing by year can actually mask the intensity of bloody, prolonged conflicts (pp. 39-41 of Only The Dead). For example, there were fewer battle deaths per year in the Vietnam War than in the Korean War, but the Vietnam War was much bloodier overall (~50% more battle deaths):
By any rational accounting, Vietnam was the more intense war. But the more modest annual death totals in Vietnam produce the illusion of a downward trend in battle deaths. That’s because, relative to the Korean War, the Vietnam War produced a much steadier death toll, and it produced it over a longer period. Korea looks incredibly deadly, and Vietnam seems less so, solely because the Korean War was short and intense while the war in Vietnam was long and drawn out
OK, cool, thanks. I flat-out disagree with Braumoeller here. The Korean war was way more intense than the Vietnam war. It just was over quickly, whereas the vietnam war dragged on for a long time and thus was worse/bloodier/moredestructive overall.
If the word you used was bloodiest I’d agree. But you used intensity.
Fair enough! I think something Braumoeller is trying to get at with his definition of intensity is like: if I were a citizen of one of the nations involved in a war, how likely is it that I would be killed? If you end up dividing by year, then you’re measuring how likely is it that I would be killed per year of warfare. But what I would really care about is the total risk over the duration of the war.
Wait, really? I thought there were plenty of wars in the past where a significant fraction of an entire region was killed. Like, 75%.
Also, shouldn’t intensity be deaths per year divided by population of the countries involved?
Ah, great catch. It’s the third-bloodiest war in the time period Braumoeller considers, i.e. 1816-2007. That’s super different, so thanks! I’ve edited the main text.
On intensity—Braumoeller thinks dividing by year can actually mask the intensity of bloody, prolonged conflicts (pp. 39-41 of Only The Dead). For example, there were fewer battle deaths per year in the Vietnam War than in the Korean War, but the Vietnam War was much bloodier overall (~50% more battle deaths):
OK, cool, thanks. I flat-out disagree with Braumoeller here. The Korean war was way more intense than the Vietnam war. It just was over quickly, whereas the vietnam war dragged on for a long time and thus was worse/bloodier/moredestructive overall.
If the word you used was bloodiest I’d agree. But you used intensity.
Fair enough! I think something Braumoeller is trying to get at with his definition of intensity is like: if I were a citizen of one of the nations involved in a war, how likely is it that I would be killed? If you end up dividing by year, then you’re measuring how likely is it that I would be killed per year of warfare. But what I would really care about is the total risk over the duration of the war.