Thanks for the great analysis! Your first post said “My current best guess is that, between now and 2100, we face a ~35% chance of a serious, direct conflict between Great Powers.” This seems to be the estimate that is used in your guesstimate model for “probability of a major great power war breaking out before 2100″. But in this post you say your best guess for the chance of at least one great power war breaking out this century is 45%. Not sure why there is this discrepancy, am I missing something?
Thanks for the great analysis!
Your first post said “My current best guess is that, between now and 2100, we face a ~35% chance of a serious, direct conflict between Great Powers.” This seems to be the estimate that is used in your guesstimate model for “probability of a major great power war breaking out before 2100″.
But in this post you say your best guess for the chance of at least one great power war breaking out this century is 45%. Not sure why there is this discrepancy, am I missing something?