Good points, thanks! I agree the wording in the main post there could be more careful. In deemphasizing the size of the effect there, I was reacting to claims along the lines of “US-China conflict is unlikely because their economic interdependence makes it too costly”. I still think that that’s not a particularly strong consideration for reasons discussed in the main post. But you’re probably right that I’m probably responding to a strawman, and that serious takes are more nuanced than that.
Good points, thanks! I agree the wording in the main post there could be more careful. In deemphasizing the size of the effect there, I was reacting to claims along the lines of “US-China conflict is unlikely because their economic interdependence makes it too costly”. I still think that that’s not a particularly strong consideration for reasons discussed in the main post. But you’re probably right that I’m probably responding to a strawman, and that serious takes are more nuanced than that.