@Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸[1], here is an alternative bet I am open to. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about superintelligent AI:
Resolves with a date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
The resolution date of the bet can be moved such that it would be good for you. I think the bet above would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power if your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus was the end of 2028, and the probability of me paying you if you win (p1) was the same as the probability of you paying me if I win (p2). Under your views, I think p2 is slightly higher than p1 because of higher extinction risk if you win than if I win. So it makes sense for you to move the resolution date of the bet a little bit forward to account for this.
@Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸[1], here is an alternative bet I am open to. If, until the end of 2028, Metaculus’ question about superintelligent AI:
Resolves with a date, I transfer to you 10 k 2025-January-$.
Does not resolve, you transfer to me 10 k 2025-January-$.
Resolves ambiguously, nothing happens.
The resolution date of the bet can be moved such that it would be good for you. I think the bet above would be neutral for you in terms of purchasing power if your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus was the end of 2028, and the probability of me paying you if you win (p1) was the same as the probability of you paying me if I win (p2). Under your views, I think p2 is slightly higher than p1 because of higher extinction risk if you win than if I win. So it makes sense for you to move the resolution date of the bet a little bit forward to account for this.
I am tagging you because I clarified a little the bet.