If the US AI industry slowed down, but the rest of the world didn’t, how good or bad would this be? How could we avoid adverse selection where countries that don’t pause are presumably going to be less interested in safety all else equal?
(As you note much of the value may come from your advocacy making more ‘mainstream’ policies more palatable, in which case the specifics of Pause itself matter less, but are still good to think about.)
I would also be interested in your thoughts on @taoburga’s push back here. (Tao, I think I have a higher credence than you that Pause advocacy is net positive, but I agree it is messy and non-obvious.)
On Pauses
If the US AI industry slowed down, but the rest of the world didn’t, how good or bad would this be? How could we avoid adverse selection where countries that don’t pause are presumably going to be less interested in safety all else equal?
In general, are there any notable updates/​things you’ve changed your mind about/​relevant things changing in the world since you wrote https://​​forum.effectivealtruism.org/​​posts/​​Y4SaFM5LfsZzbnymu/​​the-case-for-ai-safety-advocacy-to-the-public?
(As you note much of the value may come from your advocacy making more ‘mainstream’ policies more palatable, in which case the specifics of Pause itself matter less, but are still good to think about.)
I would also be interested in your thoughts on @taoburga’s push back here. (Tao, I think I have a higher credence than you that Pause advocacy is net positive, but I agree it is messy and non-obvious.)