I know this post was written about NY bonuses, but there are 11 states with better opportunities for this than NYC. In order of most new user bonus dollars to fewest, here are the twelve states with at least five licensed online sports books:
New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona, Illinois, West Virginia, New York.
To Kasey’s point, taxes are a HUGE consideration when considering whether this is worth doing. If you take the standard deduction, you will not be able to deduct losses against wins and you’re forced into a strategy that attempts to lose very few bets (which is actually opposite of the strategy that maximizes EV of promos like Twinspires’ and BetMGM’s.)
Also: most sites do not let you bet bonus funds before betting your deposit. The only way to eliminate risk is by betting both sides of the same game. Most sites have a stipulation that you must bet odds longer than −200 to claim bonus funds, so you cannot be more than a 67% favorite to qualify for this promo by betting one side. I think it is reckless for someone who only has $2,000 to their name be betting $1,000 via these promos, though the Caesars promo does give the bettor very favorable terms.
It’s easy to see this as completely free money both due to survivorship bias and the availability heuristic. Rob ran above EV, so did I, and so did the friend I coached through this process in Michigan. There is risk involved, particularly with such a small sample of books in NY. We should be careful about how we advise EAs to risk their money, as trust in the community is worth much more than a few thousand dollars.
Like Martin and Rob, I also thought of EA when I found this opportunity. Here is the full guide I wrote on how to make the most out of sign up bonuses (two friends and I were able to make over $50,000 in five days) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/29EZBsbLovTgu6C3B/ea-fundraising-through-advantage-sports-betting-a-guide
I know this post was written about NY bonuses, but there are 11 states with better opportunities for this than NYC. In order of most new user bonus dollars to fewest, here are the twelve states with at least five licensed online sports books:
New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Iowa, Tennessee, Arizona, Illinois, West Virginia, New York.
To Kasey’s point, taxes are a HUGE consideration when considering whether this is worth doing. If you take the standard deduction, you will not be able to deduct losses against wins and you’re forced into a strategy that attempts to lose very few bets (which is actually opposite of the strategy that maximizes EV of promos like Twinspires’ and BetMGM’s.)
Also: most sites do not let you bet bonus funds before betting your deposit. The only way to eliminate risk is by betting both sides of the same game. Most sites have a stipulation that you must bet odds longer than −200 to claim bonus funds, so you cannot be more than a 67% favorite to qualify for this promo by betting one side. I think it is reckless for someone who only has $2,000 to their name be betting $1,000 via these promos, though the Caesars promo does give the bettor very favorable terms.
It’s easy to see this as completely free money both due to survivorship bias and the availability heuristic. Rob ran above EV, so did I, and so did the friend I coached through this process in Michigan. There is risk involved, particularly with such a small sample of books in NY. We should be careful about how we advise EAs to risk their money, as trust in the community is worth much more than a few thousand dollars.