I used the maximum EV you can get without risking any of your own money. If you want to have less exposure to outcomes, you can choose lower-EV bets with higher likelihood of payouts, but if you’re doing this for charity, it doesn’t really make sense to do that.
For example, suppose you have a $1000 free bet. It doesn’t pay out the principal if you win, just returns payouts for whatever you bet on. You can bet on an outcome that is 91% likely, in which case you have a 91% chance of winning $100 and a 9% chance of winning nothing, for an EV of $91. Or you could bet on an outcome that is 1% likely, in which case you have a 1% chance of winning $100000 and a 99% chance of winning nothing, for an EV of $1000. If you’re donating your winnings to charity regardless of the outcome, you should do the riskier bet, but if you have sharply declining marginal utility of money, you might want the safer bet with lower average payout.
Just curious, how was the expected value calculated? Wouldn’t this depend on the bets you make?
I used the maximum EV you can get without risking any of your own money. If you want to have less exposure to outcomes, you can choose lower-EV bets with higher likelihood of payouts, but if you’re doing this for charity, it doesn’t really make sense to do that.
For example, suppose you have a $1000 free bet. It doesn’t pay out the principal if you win, just returns payouts for whatever you bet on. You can bet on an outcome that is 91% likely, in which case you have a 91% chance of winning $100 and a 9% chance of winning nothing, for an EV of $91. Or you could bet on an outcome that is 1% likely, in which case you have a 1% chance of winning $100000 and a 99% chance of winning nothing, for an EV of $1000. If you’re donating your winnings to charity regardless of the outcome, you should do the riskier bet, but if you have sharply declining marginal utility of money, you might want the safer bet with lower average payout.