Yep, that makes sense, thank you. I agree with your calculation and the positive EV result in this example, and I agree you could construct other bets with different EV / risk profiles.
As @KaseyShibayama originally noted above, this isn’t risk-free, so these “risk-free bet” offers differ from the deposit bonuses OP describes, where one gets “free bet” money immediately and can keep the original deposit money to withdraw without risking any of it.
Edit: I see now the error in my calculation; OP’s example is indeed correct. Any positive value on the site credit drives the total EV positive (assuming the original bet is 0 EV).
Yep, that makes sense, thank you. I agree with your calculation and the positive EV result in this example, and I agree you could construct other bets with different EV / risk profiles.
As @KaseyShibayama originally noted above, this isn’t risk-free, so these “risk-free bet” offers differ from the deposit bonuses OP describes, where one gets “free bet” money immediately and can keep the original deposit money to withdraw without risking any of it.
I still thinkOP’s example here isn’t quite right, because you can’t easily convert the $1000 of site credit to $1000 of cash.Edit: I see now the error in my calculation; OP’s example is indeed correct. Any positive value on the site credit drives the total EV positive (assuming the original bet is 0 EV).