I am >98% certain this was due to a shared exposure to an infected bird rather than human-to-human transmission (base rate + no meaningful evidence otherwise). Similarly, at no point did I think there was a >5% chance this would turn out to be human-to-human transmission.
I would recommend that we do not post H5N1 cases without evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission or very large clusters. We should expect to see a lot and they should not meaningfully update our view of the situation.
Looks like everyone except the two confirmed cases (father and daughter) tested negative.
I am >98% certain this was due to a shared exposure to an infected bird rather than human-to-human transmission (base rate + no meaningful evidence otherwise). Similarly, at no point did I think there was a >5% chance this would turn out to be human-to-human transmission.
I would recommend that we do not post H5N1 cases without evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission or very large clusters. We should expect to see a lot and they should not meaningfully update our view of the situation.